Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 04:17:34 AWUS01 KWNH 060417 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0643 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1216 AM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Areas affected...Southeast CO, Northeast NM, TX/OK Panhandles, Southern KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060415Z - 060900Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly organized into an MCS tonight and then push eastward. Rainfall rates within the most intense convection will likely reach 1-3"/hr. Rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts may result in flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening indicates thunderstorms becoming increasingly widespread from the High Plains of NM and CO into the TX/OK Panhandles. This convection is blossoming in response to a modest shortwave move eastward out of Colorado and interacting with an intensifying LLJ out of the E/SE reaching 30 kts on local VWPs. Between these two features, a stationary front analyzed by WPC is draped from NM through OK, serving as a focus for ascent through convergence and moisture confluence. PWs within the pre-convective environment are quite anomalous, measured by 00Z U/A soundings at both DDC and AMA to be above the 90th percentile, collocated with a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This has produced rainfall rates estimated by KPUX of 2-2.5"/hr resulting in FLASH QPE:FFG ratio as high as 180%. As the LLJ intensifies to 30-40 kts tonight, it will even more efficiently resupply moisture and instability north/northwest into the Panhandles of TX/OK and southern KS. At the same time, this will result in increasing bulk shear reaching 30-50 kts, which will support upscale growth of convection into an MCS. This is supported by most available high-res guidance, with decent agreement in placement noted by 6-hr HREF EAS probabilities for 1 inch as high as 50%. The most likely location for the heaviest rainfall axis will be just north of the front/LLJ nose where isentropic upglide will contribute to regeneration of convection within the WAA. As storms organize, these clusters are likely to move progressively eastward on 30-40 kt Corfidi vectors, but motion aligned to the front combined with likely persistent development along the front will support training. Additionally, rainfall rates progged by the HREF neighborhood probabilities and HRRR 15-min accumulation could reach 3"/hr at times, contributing to rainfall that could reach 2-3", with locally higher amounts approaching 5" possible. The High Plains of CO and NM, as well as the western panhandles, have been wet recently noted by 7-day AHPS rainfall that is 200-400% of normal. This has lowered FFG in some areas to as low as 1"/1hr and 1.5"/3hrs. The soils appear drier farther east into OK and KS, however. This indicates that the greater flash flood risk for the next few hours could be focused from Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles, but greater organization with time could also drive an enhanced flash flood risk downstream overnight, especially where any training or repeating of the heaviest rainfall can occur. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DS4wwIcGJwT-F33201_cxU2RnZ5u9rxxJWh6cPG-7pYQD5jlUaEEotMW8ii17Dj6Agm= xIcZ9IElAnlLelKIoBRj-cs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38820312 38750247 38600185 38480129 38290059=20 38119978 37969845 37549791 37059804 36419886=20 35989962 35650059 35480140 35450209 35500258=20 35630302 35960326 36390324 37060344 37600369=20 38030397 38410407 38700376=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .