Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1436
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 04:13:11

ACUS11 KWNS 060413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060412=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern
Kansas...northeastern New Mexico...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle
vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...450...

Valid 060412Z - 060615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449, 450
continues.

SUMMARY...A more focused area of intensifying and organizing
thunderstorm development still appears possible across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through 1-2 AM CDT, with a tendency to
spread eastward and southeastward overnight, accompanied by a risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts.  Trends are being monitored for
an additional severe weather watch east of WW 450.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development
persists, probably aided by large-scale forcing for ascent
associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection.  This
forcing remains broadly focused near the Raton Mesa vicinity into
the Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of western Oklahoma, above
conglomerate southward advancing convective outflow. Through 05-07Z,
this may strengthen further across the Texas Panhandle, near a
modestly strengthening (30-40 kt) nocturnal southerly low-level jet.
 It is possible that this could still contribute to a consolidating,
more focused area of increasing thunderstorm development, with
inflow of moderate CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear
providing potential for substantive intensification and
organization.

...Kerr.. 07/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4OUAcgrKbsOM5kBFXWkYq7znrsi_1PaeNLSEo8F51NgB-V_ho7kV6ZHS4o8zAUn1IaSb_MQM_=
Gu06V9vQ2AxEygYVAM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38060376 38220218 37799995 36939891 34820043 34500349
            36090349 38060376=20


=3D =3D =3D
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