Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 00:51:41

ACUS01 KWNS 060051
SWODY1
SPC AC 060050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from portions of
southeast Colorado into Oklahoma. Wind and hail are the primary
risks.

....01z Update...

Weak mid-level short-wave trough has emerged over eastern CO and is
beginning to turn southeast due to the upper ridge position over the
southern Rockies. Scattered convection has developed immediately
ahead of this feature with several supercells currently noted across
southeast CO into northeast NM. Early-day MCS over KS/OK has
disrupted the boundary layer considerably across the lower Plains
but easterly low-level flow is now predominant across OK into
southeast CO. Convective outflow boundary continues to move west
across southwest OK/northwest TX. This wind shift may influence
ongoing convection across southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK to
propagate a bit more southeast than earlier anticipated. Although,
it's not entirely clear how this cluster will evolve over the next
few hours. Upstream, 00z sounding from AMA exhibits 2700 J/kg SBCAPE
with ample deep-layer flow/shear for maintaining organized
clusters/isolated supercells. Confidence continues regarding the
potential for upscale growth with the CO/NM activity after dark. One
or more MCSs should ultimately evolve across the high Plains from
southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. With time these clusters should
propagate toward northern OK later tonight.

...Darrow.. 07/06/2023

$$

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