Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1435 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 23:10:40 ACUS11 KWNS 052310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052310=20 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060145- Mesoscale Discussion 1435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico...southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449... Valid 052310Z - 060145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into the 7-9 PM, before a general increase in thunderstorms commences, with potential to organize and become accompanied by a risk for strong wind gusts later this evening. A new severe weather watch remains unlikely in the near term, but trends are being monitored for the possibility of a watch later this evening. DISCUSSION...Focused low-level forcing for ascent, near the intersection of a zone of stronger differential surface heating across a remnant outflow boundary and lee surface troughing, is maintaining isolated supercell development across the eastern Texas Panhandle. At the same time, additional isolated storms are slowly developing and propagating off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, while large-scale ascent driven by lower/mid-tropspheric warm advection gradually overspreads areas near/north through northeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity. This appears to be occurring near the southern periphery of 30-50 kt westerly/northwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, and downstream of an embedded low amplitude perturbation crossing the Colorado Rockies. While pronounced veering from the low-level easterlies to the north of the outflow boundary (and southerlies to the south of the outflow) is contributing to moderately strong deep-layer shear, deep-layer ambient westerly mean flow is weak and supportive of only slow storm motions with a substantial southward propagational component. There may be little change in ongoing convective trends into the 00-02Z time frame, when the onset of diurnal cooling begins to result in increasing inhibition for parcels characterized by moderately large CAPE, along the outflow boundary and to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, forcing associated with warm advection, aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, may support a general increase in convective development. While this will probably be rooted above the decoupling boundary layer, it still appears that elevated inflow may be still be characterized by sizable CAPE, with cloud-bearing layer shear sufficient to support an organizing cluster as activity grows upscale. ...Kerr.. 07/05/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!75_hbMY5gWBdVam93FqQvB8ukuHicIg-FQHC4vpHh2I_-gSLd3PxiwW-H75IPVko4dKjmhQlN= 6Uhm5QlCcG5qWrjY80$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37070476 37920460 37430001 35290020 35330275 36290475 37070476=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .