Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1434
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 20:55:38

ACUS11 KWNS 052055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052055=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052055Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible for a few
hours over a small area from the eastern Texas Panhandle into far
western Oklahoma. Large hail will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms persist near the intersection of a modified
outflow boundary and surface trough over the northeast TX Panhandle.
Other attempts at initiation have failed farther east into OK where
capping is a bit stronger. However, additional heating and air mass
modification may yield isolated cells into that area as well as
backed low-level winds favor rightward propagation. If the zone can
destabilize further, a small corridor of damaging hail may
materialize. At this time, the overall size and duration of the
severe risk appears too short/small for a watch, although trends
will continue to be monitored.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9AL-nHW80oIe3UxFnQUpheXuOXYSpUl7OhevA5-HgPltkSvqY9eFVZLqErHTQMwu7EbUK_p4a=
1MnlL3QQ-HAduZAXnQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35210108 35810076 36130050 36170020 36019990 35849975
            35269903 34969894 34769946 34770010 34810069 34950102
            35210108=20


=3D =3D =3D
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