Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1433
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 20:35:38

ACUS11 KWNS 052035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052035=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...much of southeast Colorado into northeast New
Mexico and the far western OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 052035Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated supercells capable of very large hail,
damaging gusts and a brief tornado threat are expected to form in
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A very moist yet cool air mass currently exists across
much of the central Plains, with easterly surface winds over the
High Plains of CO/NM. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the
cloud fields, with temperatures gradually rising. Of note are the
upper 70s F temperatures now into the Raton/Trinidad area, which
when combined with mid 50s dewpoints results in very strong
instability. Farther north toward Colorado Springs, stratus has
locked in cool temperatures for much of the day, but recent
observations indicate mixing is underway with winds out of the south
around 15 mph.

The moist upslope flow combined with heating will lead to at least
isolated supercells forming off the high terrain, with initial hail
threat. Continued heating as well as persistent moist easterly flow
will support the hail/wind/tor threat extending eastward perhaps
toward the Panhandles tonight.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!92YtjGYTDbvUSOcp8chUiIFK3aRiCVdp8qDrcV6qQFEYKlWZC8ngUTIu0N5QclYbD59Dp9jYd=
NuN_cfqh8boWnxlaM4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36310503 36680489 37090479 37410488 37660495 37940491
            38260500 38950483 38960468 38880426 38510337 38230253
            37900226 37510218 37160219 36700231 36280263 35900298
            35820325 35800359 36130465 36310503=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.