Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 19:43:40 ACUS01 KWNS 051943 SWODY1 SPC AC 051942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible across a portion of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico to northwest Oklahoma through tonight. Scattered damaging winds are also possible over northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin through early evening. ....20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. Relatively cool, cloudy conditions persist from the southern Plains to the Colorado Front Range due to the passage of an earlier MCS. Nonetheless, steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually warming boundary layer through the day to support supercell development off of the higher terrain. Severe hail and the chance of a tornado are the initial concerns, before upscale growth into an MCS supports a severe wind threat across southwest KS, northwest OK, and the TX Panhandle later this evening. Otherwise, pulse cellular storms and multicells will continue to pose a damaging gust threat across the MS Valley into the Southeast through the remainder of the afternoon. ...Squitieri.. 07/05/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023/ ....Southern Rockies to south KS and OK... Composite outflow/effective surface cold front attendant to a decaying MCS extends from southern OK to the TX Panhandle. Rather pronounced differential heating will occur and yield an intense surface temperature gradient from around 100 along the Red River to upper 60s holding in parts of eastern CO/northwest KS. Late afternoon thunderstorm development should largely be focused along the higher terrain of CO to northeast NM with a fair amount of MLCIN likely holding over the adjacent High Plains north of the Raton Mesa. A few supercells should form with a primary threat of large hail but may struggle to move off the terrain north of the Panhandles early. Additional storms may also form near the outflow/front intersection in the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity along the fringe of the mid-level flow. This evening, a strengthening low-level jet atop the robust baroclinic zone will yield increasing storm coverage as inhibition becomes minimized for slightly elevated parcels. This should favor a mix of supercells and clusters over eastern CO and southwest KS that may grow upscale into a southeast-moving MCS overnight into parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. Large hail will be a threat mainly early, with strong to severe wind gust potential lingering into the overnight. ....AR to WI/MI... A well-defined MCV is evident across northeast MO with a separate MCV approaching the Ozark Plateau attendant to a decaying MCS in OK. The northern one should remain coincident near a slow-moving cold front that arcs from the Mid-MS Valley to eastern WI. While there is flow enhancement evident on the backside of the Ozarks MCV, effective bulk shear downstream of both MCVs should remain weak up to around 20 kts (south of south WI). In addition, mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but nearly full insolation will support a plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. Morning CAM guidance is consistent in indicating scattered to widespread storms later this afternoon. But the weakly sheared environment suggest clusters will only be loosely organized, suggesting severe gust potential will be relatively sporadic and ill-defined across much of the region. One exception may be across northern IL to southeast WI where slightly stronger deep-layer shear is expected. ....GA and the Carolinas... An MCV over the southern Appalachians drifting east and differential boundary-layer heating owing to its attendant cloud canopy should help focus scattered thunderstorm development to its south in GA and east-southeast across parts of the Carolinas. Relatively greater heating will occur across the coastal plain and parts of the Piedmont, yielding a pronounced MLCAPE gradient from west to east amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Flow enhancement appears minor, resulting in effective bulk shear only up to around 20 kts. This may be adequate for loosely organized, slow-moving multicell clusters that may produce isolated damaging winds. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .