Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 18:46:57

AWUS01 KWNH 051846
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0642
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...Western IA...Northern IL...Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051845Z - 060000Z

Summary...Convection is likely to continue to develop along a
stationary frontal boundary through the afternoon.  Southwest to
northeast training storms may produce heavy rainfall amounts of
1-2 in/hr.=20=20

Discussion...Regional radar at 18Z showed isolated to scattered
convection developing and beginning to propagate southwest to
northeast along a stationary frontal boundary extending from the
upper Great Lakes back into the mid Mississippi Valley.  Radar
estimated rainfall rates have started to increase to 1-2 in/hr
within the core of some of the heavier cells.  Mesoanalysis showed
deep southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary supporting PWs in
excess of 1.6 inches across much of the highlighted area with
MLCAPEs above 1500 J/kg.  The front is expected to drift slowly to
the east, with southwesterly flow proving a further increase in
PWs through the afternoon.  Meanwhile, right entrance region upper
jet forcing slowly translating to the east across the upper
Midwest and an MCV lifting out of the mid Mississippi Valley will
provide areas of enhanced ascent.  With southwest to northeast
training of cells likely to continue through at least the
near-term, localized heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding
is possible.  Both the HRRR and HREF indicate 1-2 inches, with
locally heavier amounts, are possible within the highlighted area
through 00Z.  Neighborhood probabilities from the HREF show high
probabilities for 2 inches or more along the northern IA/IL border
and from southwestern WI through the Green Bay area.

Pereira

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8gRDqoEPBWFjVtPquOGUSPAgOSAiX3D0xFTl7iUSCozY4dG_AMXuWl2OSTdduWEL9wGo=
9MgVUgYIhLvrfYaL8AZEKfA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRB...ILX...LOT...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45368676 43848734 42148883 40289017 41049122=20
            42689024 44038850 45148771=20

=3D =3D =3D
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