Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1431
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 18:08:07

ACUS11 KWNS 051808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051807=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-052030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051807Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail
over southeast Missouri, far southwest Illinois and northeast
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...A prominent MCV over northern Missouri is moving
quickly into western IL, with related band of low-level convergence
extending southward into northern AR. Storms are increasing over
southeast MO due to favorable lift and where moderate instability
exists, along with DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Westerly winds aloft are
not strong but storms should continue to push eastward where the air
mass continues to heat. Steepening boundary layer lapse rates and
PWAT over 1.50" will favor locally strong downbursts. Marginal hail
cannot be ruled out the briefly strong cores.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6OBaY-jBV_4fKaI4IMJVeYGmiysa7bd-wf4wwO2EajbgdQIofaoV24LFQVAVDQ--agtkHW2GT=
Sp4efvgdYAklHdPFr8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37638897 36628980 35819096 35639153 35719207 35919233
            36289236 36849165 37339124 37589104 37999066 38629035
            39038982 39008931 38708895 38138888 37638897=20


=3D =3D =3D
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