Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1430
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 17:50:08

ACUS11 KWNS 051750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051749=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern IL and southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051749Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
north-central IL and portions of southeastern WI. Damaging wind
gusts and hail are possible with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection initiation attempts are underway in
portions of northern and central IL, currently focused separately
near the IL/WI border as well as western IL. These updrafts are
forming to the south of a belt of stronger (30-40 kt) mid-level flow
in the vicinity of a northeast-southwest oriented surface cold
front. Ample potential buoyancy (MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg) will
support continued updraft development and maturation across the
area. Bulk shear varies regionally, with greater values observed to
the north and west -- around 25 kts of 0-6-km shear currently at
KDVN and MKX compared to 17 kts at KLOT -- closer to the mid-level
jet. Shear may increase slightly during the next few hours, but in
general the environment is expected to remain quasi-steady as
updrafts continue to form along the cold front. Given maturing cells
moving eastward into lesser shear amidst weak low-level flow,
evolution into semi-organized clusters is possible. This is
consistent with recent high-resolution guidance showing upscale
growth into a broken line and/or clusters of storms by
mid-afternoon. The primary threats with these storms would be
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Continued initiation attempts
and overall evolution will continue to be monitored for possible
watch issuance later this afternoon.

...Flournoy/Grams.. 07/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7AUvx9v2hIOGWg4ZoWv64InG8oWzB5gBu0d_Z7kTaGy_nu3XwMyi3oDLLdbCiTynO3t78H6jA=
R3nva1YX4rlRpBRD6Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40358817 39928870 39678946 39659013 39719083 40039110
            40599113 41449070 42139021 42818950 43398866 43548800
            43508745 43018709 42378703 41578721 40888768 40358817=20


=3D =3D =3D
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