Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 12:49:09

ACUS01 KWNS 051249
SWODY1
SPC AC 051247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected today from the the central and
southern High Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes region. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
severe weather hazards. A tornado or two is also possible over the
central and southern high Plains.

....Central/southern Plains...
Western flank of outflow from overnight MCS should continue moving
southeast/south over northeast OK this morning with some ongoing
thunderstorm potential, while thunderstorms also persist early
within a warm advection regime over northern OK/southern KS north of
a stationary front. Strong daytime heating will contribute to
renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
front/residual outflow boundary across southern KS/northern OK,
where strong instability (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) will be
present. Northwesterly mid-level flow averaging 35 kts will be
sufficient for organized storms including supercells with a risk for
severe hail and perhaps a tornado. With time, clusters/short line
segments should evolve with damaging winds an increasing concern as
storms move southeast. Some potential exists for current storms to
shift the effective front, and focus for later development, farther
south and this will be re-evaluated with the 1630z outlook.

Farther west, isolated supercells are likely to develop across the
higher terrain in CO/northeast NM by late afternoon/early evening,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear,
and moderate instability will result in the potential for large hail
and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms will likely congeal into a
southeast-moving cluster later this evening/overnight across the
TX/OK Panhandles and northern OK in the presence of strengthening
low-level warm advection, with strong/damaging wind potential the
primary severe risk.

....Missouri/Illinois into Great Lakes...
Remnants of the overnight MCS will continue moving east today, with
renewed updrafts developing along residual outflow boundary this
afternoon across eastern MO/western IL, as well as northward along
the cold front over eastern WI/Lake Michigan. Modest mid-level
southwest/west flow will contribute to deep-layer shear of 20-35 kts
in the presence of moderate/strong MLCAPE. Storms may initially
possess some supercell characteristics capable of isolated large
hail and strong/severe gusts, with linear evolution expected and
damaging wind gusts becoming the primary concern.

...Bunting/Gleason.. 07/05/2023

$$

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