Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 09:54:51

AWUS01 KWNH 050954
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-051345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0641
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 AM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...eastern TN into the southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050952Z - 051345Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood risk will continue for portions
of eastern TN into the southern Appalachians over the next 2-4
hours. slow movement and short term training of heavy rain cores
may produce 1-2 inches in 15-30 minutes.

DISCUSSION...A persistent MCV from earlier convection continues to
track through TN, with local radar imagery placing the circulation
in eastern White County at 0920Z. KOHX radar estimates have shown
peak 1 hour rainfall rates between 1 and 2 in/hr just ahead of the
MCV with at least one station showing 1.09 inches of rain in 15
minutes ~7 miles WSW of Sparta, TN. Precipitable water values just
shy of 2 inches given surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower
70s have been supporting a small region of negligible convective
inhibition over eastern TN in the presence of ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE
via the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis. Additional convection aided by weak
warm air advection was noted near the base of the southern
Appalachians from northern GA into far southeastern TN.

The MCV has been tracking toward the ENE between 20-25 kt and this
motion is likely to continue over the next few hours. Slow cell
movement and short term training of heavy rain cores will continue
the threat for intense rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 30 minutes and
localized flash flooding. These high rainfall rates become more of
a concern if they can fall onto the more sensitive terrain of the
southern Appalachians. While it remains unclear exactly how long
the flash flood threat will persist given poor model performance
in this region of the country, there remains at least a localized
flash flood concern over eastern TN into the southern Appalachians
for the next 2-4 hours.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_WT3lj1Z-oN8-DeSpvdpCkaKgQNwNPbKXjHncap-eR7r6eSxSnwlJoGAeCn65ZVIAO1J=
PiXaVAhQZDQ7nLkC0wl2ClA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36538272 35788249 34928372 34488424 34528528=20
            35288563 35888564 36358513 36518426=20

=3D =3D =3D
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