Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 08:47:51

AWUS01 KWNH 050847
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-051400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0640
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...east-central KS into nern OK, nwrn AR, swrn MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050844Z - 051400Z

Summary...The development and expansion of elevated convection in
the wake of an MCS may pose a localized flash flood threat from
east-central KS into northeastern OK, northwestern AR,
southwestern MO. Peak but localized rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
are expected through 14Z.

Discussion...0815Z radar imagery and surface observations placed
the leading convective outflow boundary associated with an MCS
over KS/MO, from near DMO to JLN to PNC. Significant weakening of
convection along the leading edge of the MCS has occurred over the
past 1-2 hours and the coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
remained over southern KS in the vicinity of ICT, well behind the
leading edge of the cold pool. This recent convective development
appears to be elevated, possibly rooted in the 850-700 mb layer as
stable air at the surface is overrun by 15-25 kt of 850 mb flow
from the southwest (KICT & KVNX VAD wind plots showed ~20 kt at
08Z). The northward resupply of low level moisture within the
850-700 mb layer has supported MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg behind the
outflow boundary with weak or zero convective inhibition for
elevated parcels in a small region of KS.

Short term RAP and various HRRR forecasts seem to indicate the
potential for a northwest to southeast oriented axis of
thunderstorms becoming better developed over the next few hours as
a low to mid-level convergence axis sets up along the northern
edge of the MUCAPE plume. LFC-EL mean layer winds are expected to
orient mostly parallel to the elevated convergence axis, allowing
for some repeating and short-term training of heavy rain. While
the flash flood risk from this setup does not appear to be overly
concerning given mostly dry antecedent conditions, 1 to 3 inches
of rain since 00Z occurred over portions of eastern/southeastern
KS and the addition of training with 1-2 in/hr rates may pose an
isolated threat for flash flooding, prior to low level jet
weakening prior to 14Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!47Ne6ZBew5w8fISiJnNQea96bfyav1_AZ_n8awBA7oKnAzd1TfEUSCg2Zw80bEMqIP7m=
SSa6ykPj2YsGap9VmC0tgG0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39029738 38029556 37259413 36629410 36349483=20
            36559624 37149736 38189825=20

=3D =3D =3D
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