Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 08:44:05

ACUS48 KWNS 050843
SWOD48
SPC AC 050842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The most recent runs of the global models appear to be in reasonably
good large-scale agreement into Days 5-6, after which their handling
of the Canadian upper-level cyclone -- and associated
troughing/cyclonic flow extending southward across the U.S. --
deviates in an increasingly substantial way.

Prior to this, a cyclonically arcing belt of enhanced mid-level flow
-- from the Plains east to the East Coast -- will contribute to
sufficient shear for organized convection.  In general, a zone where
severe risk may be heightened is apparent from the central High
Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys Day 4/Saturday.
This zone may shift slightly southward -- from the central High
Plains to the Mid South area Days 5 and 6 (Sunday/Monday).
Meanwhile, a potential/second area of interest may evolve across the
north-central U.S. Days 5-6, with a cold front expected to shift
southward across this region.  However, within these broad zones,
narrowing down areas of more concentrated severe potential remains
difficult at this time.  As such, no outlook areas will be
highlighting during the medium-range period.

...Goss.. 07/05/2023

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