Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 03:26:11 AWUS01 KWNH 050326 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050830- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0638 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1125 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Areas affected...eastern KS into far western MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 050323Z - 050830Z Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be possible across eastern KS into far western MO over the next 3-5 hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr will be possible along with localized storm totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher). Discussion...Widespread convection was noted at 03Z, extending from southeastern NE into central KS in the form of a leading squall line, located just ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. More localized thunderstorm development was noted in the vicinity of Council Grove and Eskridge, near a locally produced outflow boundary, enhanced by a nearly stationary cell that produced ~1.5 inches of rain in 30 minutes on the north side of Council Grove City Lake ending 0230Z. Sizable MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg and 00Z RAOB derived precipitable water values of 1.5 (Topeka) to 1.8 inches (Omaha) will support intense rainfall rates but duration of these rates over any given location is uncertain which may limit the overall flash flood threat, combined with fairly dry antecedent conditions. A mature cold pool has formed over northeastern KS, pressing southeastward with the leading squall line, with 15-25 kt of forward speed over the past hour, but with recent acceleration of forward motion observed. An immediate flash flood threat will exist where the squall line catches up to slow moving cells in the vicinity of Rt. 56 and Council Grove where 2-3 inches of rain has already fallen. Rainfall rates with the squall line itself will vary depending on orientation with respect to west to northwest cell motions, but could be as high as 2-3 in/hr where short term cell training occurs. A continued overall motion of convection toward the southeast is expected into the pool of remaining instability over eastern KS/western MO where 850 mb VAD winds measured 20-30 kt of flow from the SSW. At least a localized flash flood threat will exist from these storms, with 2 to 4+ inches of rain expected through 08Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6tlS0Iz1JnBLY686m1jl5U0u_wenA8GuUZDPX1DiuXpM2V2euziERB3CqBUR_yyeKVJB= knj-2ZB7HiMcKRBP7crzBhk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40089531 39439446 37969435 37279487 37109640=20 37089784 37719835 38539815 39309747 39959649=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .