Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1427
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 02:34:29

ACUS11 KWNS 050234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050234=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-050430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming/southern
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

Valid 050234Z - 050430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible, mainly across
northern Colorado near/east of Denver into northeast Colorado
roughly along/north of I-70.

DISCUSSION...The most severe-favorable environment remains focused
near the Front Range/I-25 corridor generally near Denver, where some
stronger storms persist along/north of I-70. A few of these storms
remain potentially capable of severe hail and/or wind gusts over the
next couple of hours. These eastward persistence into/across the
adjacent plains is a bit uncertain given what appears to be a more
convectively hostile thermodynamic environment with eastward extent.

It is otherwise perhaps worth noting that some short-term guidance
such as recent HRRR runs suggest that a secondary round of stronger
convection could materialize late tonight (after midnight local
time) across northern Colorado/far southeast Wyoming. This would
probably be related to the approach of the shortwave trough/speed
max currently over southeast Idaho. Should this development occur,
residual instability (mostly elevated) and strong shear through the
cloud-bearing layer could potentially support hail.

...Guyer.. 07/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8_RG5b0r-k7dFrKLVBenGGy0U5oH99_nw4xTVqCPWhvgMb7VC0UvEZnTlgJYq2c51IALvom3E=
V8xRZ8JrbA5mgytKG4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40710293 39670237 38920315 39440510 40920560 41600477
            41190310 40710293=20


=3D =3D =3D
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