Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1426
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 01:58:31

ACUS11 KWNS 050158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050158=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern NE...northeastern KS...far
southwestern IA...and far northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...447...

Valid 050158Z - 050330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 447
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 445 and 447 tonight.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data depicts several loosely organized
thunderstorm clusters tracking east-southeastward along a
southeastward-advancing cold front over southeast NE into northeast
KS tonight. While these storms have become increasingly
outflow-dominant over the last hour owing to weaker deep-layer shear
downstream, robust outflow and a related damaging-wind risk
continues with this activity. Additionally, regional VWP data shows
a gradual increase in a southerly low-level jet, which may aid in
some re-intensification of storms as they continue southeastward.
While overall confidence in severe-caliber storms moving
southeastward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 is low given
increasing nocturnal boundary-layer stability and weaker deep-layer
shear, a local expansion of the watch could be needed depending on
convective trends.

...Weinman.. 07/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5thj1yJ8VEfXkoyzU04V8dDmmR9qp42AWUPia77qaOcXvfAi6phG19eHumM9TijFY0709Yx-j=
qznhMrGin_bdRk0s7Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40629763 40789681 40839624 40829578 40759523 40529463
            40279450 39799452 39559474 39339502 39109541 38979593
            38909662 38879710 38899753 39059791 39309823 39719833
            40109825 40469800 40629763=20


=3D =3D =3D
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