Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 05 2023 07:31:35

ACUS03 KWNS 050731
SWODY3
SPC AC 050730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms are expected across central portions
of the country on Friday.

....High Plains eastward across the central Plains..
Thunderstorms -- and possibly local severe risk -- should be ongoing
at the start of the period across the Plains, where low-level warm
advection/QG ascent will be focused.

As a mid-level short-wave trough, embedded in the enhanced belt of
westerlies across the central U.S., shifts across the Plains during
the day, a weak/associated surface low should also traverse the
Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity, and eventually approach/reach Missouri
late.

While isolated storms develop across the High Plains during the
afternoon, remnant storms ongoing over the Plains may locally
redevelop/reintensify.  By evening, strengthening of the low-level
jet across the southern and into the central Plains should permit
storms over the High Plains to shift eastward, as well as allow an
increase in convection near and ahead of the weak surface low
crossing the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity.

While details regarding convective evolution remain a bit nebulous,
moderate instability across the area coincident with the enhanced
mid-level flow, suggests potential for strong/severe storms.  Risk
should remain over the High Plains/Plains through the day, but will
likely continue into the second half of the period and perhaps
spread into the Missouri vicinity overnight.

...Goss.. 07/05/2023

$$

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