Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1425
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 23:33:31

ACUS11 KWNS 042333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042333=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western into north-central KS and
south-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...446...

Valid 042333Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 446
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain possible across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446 and 445 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are ongoing in the vicinity of a
NE-SW-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across
north-central into western KS this evening. The primary concern with
this activity continues to be large hail to around 2.5 inches in the
near-term -- especially given the continued discrete/semi-discrete
mode and elongated midlevel hodographs near the frontal boundary.
With time, the boundary is expected to shift southeastward as a cold
front, with the potential for brief upscale growth given the
strengthening frontal ascent and deep-layer shear oriented largely
parallel to the boundary. While this evolution would tend to promote
an increasing damaging-wind risk, there is some potential that the
front undercuts the ongoing storms with time.

...Weinman.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6TILLjcBmkLJqzONYeVmxnQg75y-hwCbSZn7pMlesskkETuVsSt6A5fKZUnWtEzLpAviQPuTO=
44XY8AxTo5p5xPhb0s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38320196 38680198 39120168 39590109 40469930 40579851
            40419809 40039795 39719810 39259875 38270082 38130146
            38140183 38320196=20


=3D =3D =3D
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