Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 23:07:29

ACUS11 KWNS 042307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042307=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and far west-central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 042307Z - 050030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 445 this evening. The damaging-wind risk should gradually
increase with continued upscale growth during the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KOAX shows two primary
thunderstorm clusters tracking eastward along a cold front moving
across parts of eastern Nebraska this evening. Around 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear (per OAX VWP data) oriented oblique to the
southeastward-advancing cold front is favoring gradual upscale
growth, and this trend should continue during the next couple hours.
A moist/unstable air mass ahead of this activity, combined with the
favorable deep-layer shear, will support organized/deep updrafts
along the organizing cold pool, with a continued risk of large hail
and increasing damaging-wind potential.=20

Farther south over parts of southeastern NE, continued thunderstorm
development is expected both along the cold front and an outflow
boundary extending into the area from north-central KS. This
activity is evolving in a pocket of strong surface-based instability
and strengthening deep-layer shear. Large hail up to 2.5 inches in
diameter and damaging gusts are possible here -- especially in the
early stages of discrete/semi-discrete supercell development.

...Weinman.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_L8LZZ1DHOSppQVIKaeGjkZZK8-anr1N0BNvhyTCYu4-khBhKN6EalybGT32roYew29aD0V_G=
Ta4eTER2_LpFQXGmIU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41209776 41529741 41739711 42019689 42289665 42479644
            42499616 42359590 42019591 41559600 41049640 40509702
            40339744 40429803 40649823 40889816 41039808 41209776=20


=3D =3D =3D
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