Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 21:19:06

AWUS01 KWNH 042119
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0636
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...western Iowa, eastern/southern Nebraska, northern
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042117Z - 050317Z

Summary...Slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms will pose a flash
flood risk over the next 6 hours.

Discussion...Recent objective analyses/satellite imagery indicate
deepening convection along and just ahead of a seasonably strong
cold front extending from near YKN to near GLD.  Ahead of this
front, strong surface heating, 70s F dewpoints, and 7-8C/kg
mid-level lapse rates resulted in strong instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) for robust updraft development.  Furthermore, westerly
flow aloft was supporting slow eastward movement of storms, with
slower storm motions farther noted away from stronger mid-level
flow over western Nebraska.  Meanwhile, recent rainfall (3-6 inch
amounts over the past 2 weeks) have resulted in wet soils and 1.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds across the discussion area.  These
thresholds are likely to be exceeded on a localized/brief basis
through the evening hours, with peak rain rates approaching 2
inches/hr expected to develop on occasion.

Models/CAMs and observations suggest a general southeastward
motion to ongoing convection along with an appreciable expansion
of coverage through 03Z.  There's also indications that cells
should propagate and/or backbuild toward the pool of strongest
instability located across south-central Nebraska and
north-central Kansas currently.  With cell mergers, slow-movement,
and localized training expected, areas of flash flooding should
become more of a risk through the early evening.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4RCwUiI83dpwp1LiZINoBWmoNc3INpQiy1m2gzG3KT8fCKyu2q6EqTeI81LH7-iI9AvH=
6N0h-ia_baEIfkD6Wpes7j4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...
OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43199612 42889436 41799448 39929530 38599684=20
            37909908 38100098 39080163 39910031 40829895=20
            42099818 42849745=20

=3D =3D =3D
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