Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1421
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 19:18:29

ACUS11 KWNS 041918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041917=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-042145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...much of central/eastern Nebraska into
northern/western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 041917Z - 042145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form later this afternoon from
northeast Nebraska along an outflow boundary southwestward into
Kansas within the surface trough. Both damaging winds and hail will
be likely.

DISCUSSION...Surface map depicts an outflow boundary from northwest
IA into far northeast NE, with a surface trough extending
southwestward into northwest KS. Low-level lapse rates continue to
steepen with strong heating over KS, and this warming air mass will
gradually spread into southern NE. Moisture is plentiful across the
entire area, with dewpoints generally ranging from 65 in the hot air
to around 70 into eastern NE.

Substantial cumulus fields are developing both in the cooler/moist
stationary front/modifying outflow boundary regime over NE, and near
the heated trough into western/northwestern KS. Continued heating
and convergence along the boundaries will likely lead to scattered
storms by late afternoon. Steep lapse rates will favor strong
outflow winds, with veering winds with height and marginal supercell
profiles favor large damaging hail.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-EwpOMgcVrL-49hSI65oGeIxTSXPZ--ksVddSL-wXFyhGe8j--Mp751XsdR7BO6ctL5JeHtK6=
Gro3cIGPMXArGot_8Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39820040 40519983 41259944 41969875 42389799 42499760
            42389690 42049669 41329691 40399756 39449817 38889887
            38639947 38510006 38340123 38530146 38770155 39250102
            39820040=20


=3D =3D =3D
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