Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1420
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 18:23:29

ACUS11 KWNS 041823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041822=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-042015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Ark-La-Tex region...central
MS...and west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041822Z - 042015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway across
portions of the Ark-La-Tex region eastward through central MS and
west-central AL. Sporadic wind gusts and small hail are possible
with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Several deepening updrafts are observed in the
Ark-La-Tex region eastward through west-central AL. Convective
temperatures have been breached after a few hours of diurnal
heating, yielding a broad Cu field atop a mixed, moist boundary
layer. Stronger development is thus far focused along a broad
confluence zone through the region. MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg is
currently present, which is expected to continue increasing due to
heating and moist advection. Continued initiation will lead to broad
convective coverage, with some multicell-type evolution possible in
areas with focused storm-scale initiation overlapping slightly
stronger mid-level flow. In these regions, southwesterly 500-mb flow
around 20 kts could yield around 15-25 kts of effective shear,
leading to local updraft intensification and upscale growth. Amidst
the broad Cu field and developing updrafts in the Southeast, this
currently appears most likely in the highlighted area along the
confluence zone from the Ark-La-Tex eastward through west-central
AL. Given ample potential buoyancy and locally enhanced shear,
damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with any stronger
updrafts/complexes. However, kinematic support for storm-scale
intensification is rather meager, which will temper the overall
severe threat.

...Flournoy/Grams.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4X6I2BaklM24lBzUfw4GwYd0V78ZxHoPGMvQJi0GWm4AkXZQRq3E6pi3EiuUGrYL2oSNDXtWB=
Pt2QAPfN8Y_b5bjrbs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31439119 31609307 31999409 32549449 33099450 33469398
            33869245 34079102 34068974 33958874 33608797 32898759
            32148782 31628858 31458997 31439119=20


=3D =3D =3D
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