Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 17:29:56 ACUS02 KWNS 041729 SWODY2 SPC AC 041728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered storms are forecast from the central High Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. ....Central High Plains to the southwest Great Lakes... A cold front will continue to advance southeastward/southward across central portions of the country, as the southern extent of mid-level troughing crossing central Canada moves eastward across the northern and central Plains, toward the Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Wednesday morning from the eastern half of KS into the Ozarks with this activity weakening/dissipating by mid-late morning. Ahead of this associated convective debris over the mid MS Valley, heating amidst a very moist airmass characterized by upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints, will result in a moderate to very unstable airmass across the mid MS Valley (MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in southern WI to 3000 J/kg in IL/MO). Frontal convergence and weakening convective inhibition will result in scattered thunderstorms growing upscale into one or more bands of storms while thunderstorm coverage increases into the early evening. Modest deep-layer westerly mid to high-level flow will limit overall storm intensity. The stronger storms across the central Great Lakes southwestward into the Ozarks will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts. This threat will likely subside during the evening and as the activity pushes farther east/southeast into a flattened sub-tropical ridge. Farther west into the High Plains, weaker instability is expected due to more limited boundary-layer moisture. However, stronger mid-level flow near and to the cool side of the trailing, west-to-east segment of the front, atop low-level easterly/southeasterly flow, will result in deep-layer shear sufficient to support supercells. During the afternoon, isolated High-Plains storms should develop -- with attendant risks for large hail and severe gusts. Storms appear likely expand in coverage and shift out of the High Plains across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma during the evening into the overnight, as a modest, nocturnal increase in southeasterly low-level flow is expected. Some accompanying risk for severe gusts/large hail may persist across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity -- initially with frontal convection, but later with storms moving east-southeastward off the higher terrain to the west. ....The Southeast... Afternoon heating/destabilization along a weak/remnant baroclinic zone lying across the Southeast will again promote scattered thunderstorm development. Though limited shear expected across the area suggests largely disorganized storms, moderate mid-level westerly flow could support a couple of semi-organized, eastward-moving clusters with localized gusts mainly in the 45-60 mph range and resulting in pockets of wind damage. ...Smith.. 07/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .