Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 16:55:06 AWUS01 KWNH 041654 FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-042200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0635...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1254 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Corrected for TYPO Areas affected...Southeastern NY...New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 041600Z - 042200Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue to develop, with locally heavy rainfall accumulations expected.=20 Training showers and storms are expected to increase the threat for heavy amounts and flash flooding across portions of southern New England. Discussion...As the showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this morning continue to move steadily east through southeastern MA, regional radar at 1530Z showed storms redeveloping back to the west from northern NJ into southwestern New England. Recent mesoanalysis suggests this area will remain favorable for redevelopment, with deep moisture (PWs close to 2 inches) and warm cloud depths supporting efficient rain producers. Daytime heating along with a slight uptick in PWs will help bolster the potential for heavy rain rates. The greatest threat for heavy accumulations is expected to center near a stationary frontal boundary, where the west to east training of storms ahead of a slow-moving shortwave is expected to occur. Neighborhood probabilities from the HREF indicate that localized amounts of 1-2 inches over the next 6 hours are likely across CT, RI, and parts of eastern MA, with high probabilities for 2 inches or more centered from eastern CT and RI into southeastern MA. Farther to the north, a surface trough has helped to organize storms across southern VT and NH. Although slightly removed from the deepest moisture, these storms are likely to remain slow-movers in the near-term, with weak steering flow supporting a slow eastward progression -- raising the threat for at least localized heavy rainfall accumulations across this region as well. HREF probabilities indicate accumulations of 1-2 inches are likely from southeastern NH into southwestern ME. Given the wet antecedent conditions across much of the region, these additional heavy amounts are likely to result in at least isolated flash flooding concerns. Pereira ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7c4p185nbGTgrQIwWpUFtwjbnyk2OUg1Hz4FD1g5dsgvfnmZORH481PXFxn6QtXKLF25= oeST2j2TJ69snrsDKrpDvGA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 45197104 45077017 44176991 43457029 42627077=20 42127054 41717074 41517131 41367234 40687379=20 41217402 42447335 42907333 44317309 44687272=20 44687174=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .