Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1419
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 16:39:27

ACUS11 KWNS 041639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041638=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-041845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...northern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041638Z - 041845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move through northern
WI in the next few hours. Sporadic damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible, but watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has developed in
south-central MN and moved through the Twin Cities vicinity in the
last hour. Wind gusts around 30-45 kts were observed at
Minneapolis-Saint Paul area airports as the system moved through,
along with temperature drops around 10 F. The convection is
currently located along the leading edge of slightly stronger
mid-level flow (around 30-40 kts at 500 mb). Surface temperatures
have risen to around 80 F ahead of the system, yielding a
destabilizing airmass with negligible inhibition and MLCAPE around
1000+ J/kg. Continued diurnal heating combined with weak moist
advection should continue to gradually boost MLCAPE to around
1500-2000 J/kg during the next few hours. Effective shear is
expected to remain more modest as the system outpaces the slightly
stronger mid-level flow to the west. This environmental evolution
will likely support continued forced ascent along the leading edge
of the system as it moves eastward through northern WI. Locally
damaging wind gusts and hail may occur, but the overall threat
should be tempered by the more marginal kinematic environment and
relatively moist lower troposphere, respectively.

...Flournoy/Grams.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6JRC3HJgB4QjkEcY0Wj91pYI_Myp2WUhQ6JpT0Dh_dnwl9355TiIB3QdlLrLEkQ80gMQ0R4Y8=
qKQ4QeTtJWKOG_wSgU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44039117 43949208 44109254 44709278 45249285 45759262
            46219193 46619075 46698935 46358849 45958829 45328849
            44688888 44039117=20


=3D =3D =3D
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