Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 07:28:24

ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms are forecast from the northern High
Plains southeastward to Kansas and Oklahoma.

....Northern High Plains southeastward to Arkansas...
Thunderstorms -- and possibly some accompanying severe threat -- may
be ongoing early in the period across portions of the
Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity.  As this convection shifts
east-southeastward through the day, focus will shift westward into
the northern and central High Plains.  Here, along the
trailing/remnant portion of a cold front backed north-south into the
higher terrain, an axis of 50s surface dewpoints, combined with
daytime heating, will yield a zone of moderate afternoon
destabilization.

As the airmass destabilizes, at least isolated storm development is
expected, with storms then gradually increasing in coverage and
spreading eastward toward lower elevations as a southerly low-level
jet develops through the evening.  Meanwhile, with the belt of
moderate mid-level westerlies persisting atop this region, shear
favorable for supercells is expected -- particularly as the
low-level winds intensify beginning in early evening.  As such,
large hail is expected to accompany these storms, along with locally
damaging gusts and potential for a tornado or two.  With time, as
storms grow upscale, risk should transition somewhat toward wind,
though hail will also be possible locally.  Risk may continue well
into the overnight hours.

...Goss.. 07/04/2023

$$

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