Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1418
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 06:26:25

ACUS11 KWNS 040626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040625=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-040800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Portions of SD and northern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

Valid 040625Z - 040800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may continue in the
short term. But, the need for a downstream watch appears more
uncertain than previously expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster that recently moved across parts of
western SD while producing multiple measured severe gusts (60+ mph)
has devolved into two cells in central SD along surging outflow.
Given a fairly dry/well-mixed boundary layer and ample DCAPE present
across much of central/eastern SD, isolated severe wind gusts will
remain possible as this convection continues to spread eastward over
the next couple of hours. Occasional severe hail will also be
possible with the more cellular convection across central/eastern SD
in the low-level warm advection regime, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer
shear supports some supercell potential. The northern extent of any
appreciable severe threat will likely be delineated by a
front/surface boundary which extends east-west across SD. With
recent trends showing weakening of the cluster over western/central
SD, the need for a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears
lower than previously thought. Regardless, observational trends will
continue to be closely monitored.

...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6pkcdP6MiJlnIc-n_2uh-ULU3tMJrsXWAP3huy5JUJQcbCgENSlydUcSgnx7plDBd1wDbNKdt=
bdr9l3ba9KyXRtL1HM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43730126 44670111 45009960 44829701 43649695 42909832
            42500130 43730126=20


=3D =3D =3D
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