Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1417
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 04:30:23

ACUS11 KWNS 040430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040429=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Central/Southeast South Dakota and far northeast
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 040429Z - 040600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for isolated large hail will initially exist, with
the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts expected to increase
from west-to-east overnight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
be needed, particularly for south-central/southeast South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...To the north of a front across southern South Dakota,
widely scattered elevated storms will continue to increase through
the early overnight across much of central into
northeast/east-central South Dakota. Some of these storms may
produce severe hail on an isolated basis.

Of greater concern, as discussed in Mesoscale Discussion 1416, is an
upscale-growing quasi-linear MCS that continues to evolve across
southwest South Dakota along/south of I-90 as of 415z/1015pm MDT. A
54 kt wind gust was recently measured at Chadron, Nebraska as of
342z/942pm MDT. A strengthening southerly low-level jet (around 35
kt as per the North Platte WSR-88d VWP) will likely maintain this
MCS with forward propagation in vicinity of the west/east-oriented
front across southern South Dakota. This is where moisture/buoyancy
are maximized coincident with easterly low-level flow. An additional
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to cover this
increasing potential for thunderstorm wind damage.

...Guyer/Hart.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7V9xdTEI5qkq6Sh8QhHNUzEZocEUXBlN5-MFY3VdXI4AizavbDA8j_50rKHu57yTkU9tfMOpz=
bZDaGsSBh29fCoFHw8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44830105 45119953 44059717 42709694 43079921 43469981
            43710076 44830105=20


=3D =3D =3D
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