Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 01:15:23

AWUS01 KWNH 040115
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-040645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0631
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Northern VA...DC...Northern MD...Northern
DE...Southern NJ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040115Z - 040645Z

SUMMARY...Deep layer steering flow is aligning favorably for
continued training of increasingly efficient thunderstorms across
the Mid-Atlantic.  Streaks of 2-3" remain possible through the
early overnight period. Localized flash flooding remains possible.
=20

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a strengthening line of
thunderstorms from the Blue Ridge of Northern VA across
north-central MD along an old southeast sagging outflow boundary
form the expanding mature complex across the northern Delmarva
into S NJ.  GOES-E WV depicts the base of an increasingly sheared
mid-level trof crossing out of WV into NoVA, providing sufficient
ascent even as the local environment starts to become more capped
with loss of daytime heating.  Additionally, given the shortwave
is shearing, the deep stream-wise flow will support the potential
for training or very slight east-southeast deflection toward the
orientation of convection along the outflow boundary. But deep
moisture of 2-2.20" total PWats has allowed for efficient rainfall
production and with slowing forward speed, resulted in some
2-2.5"/hr rates and localized totals across some of the complex
terrain of NW VA.  Cells should still be capable of 1.5-2.5"
totals as the progress toward the urban corridor and further
present an opportunity for localized flash flooding conditions.=20

Further northeast, stronger southeasterly flow up the Chesapeake
Bay has been channelized to increase moisture flux convergence for
thunderstorms in NE MD, N DE into SW NJ supporting upstream
development along the complex's flanking line and allowing for
some short-term training and increased totals.  While FFG values
are much higher in the Pine Barrens, there will be opportunity for
training and perhaps a spot of 2-3" that may near those higher
values.=20=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7zIQ9eYP-4crSmSN5eFc872LJsI0vQb5vzHC0CYsFakWJWk5kWkepfVsoi5DKCmDYgub=
Fk5oiaQVLHikBrvq-BV-KjY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39797529 39657466 39247473 38957532 38957641=20
            38657731 38637796 38987818 39547703=20

=3D =3D =3D
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