Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1414
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 00:29:51

ACUS11 KWNS 040029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040029=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Delmarva/New Jersey/Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...440...

Valid 040029Z - 040200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439, 440
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds continues mainly across
the Delmarva vicinity into New Jersey, as well as central Virginia,
but the overall severe potential should gradually diminish into late
evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple corridors of strong/severe thunderstorms are
ongoing as 0020z/820pm EDT across the Delmarva into far southeast
Pennsylvania toward southwest New Jersey, but is highlighted by an
HP supercell/bowing structure across across southern Delaware where
a heightened potential for damaging winds exists in the short term
before moving offshore. A severe risk, mainly damaging winds, may
continue with these clusters across far northeast Maryland/far
southeast Pennsylvania moving into northern Delaware and New Jersey.
Farther south, a recent uptick of convection has occurred near/east
of the Blue Ridge in south-central Virginia. While some severe risk
will exist with this cluster over the next hour or so, it should
eventually encounter previously rain-cooled air. Current thinking is
that ongoing Watches across the region will probably be able to
expire at (or before) scheduled 02z expiration.

...Guyer.. 07/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4zZLVk3D3-cqQXOC1QtpAf5cAGZWBFdRFh6MvSZNir0hLFyy-BBAkZ5LeVahg5dJ9uIl-LuH7=
n9tTQowNFirmGjTpFo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   40227527 40017404 39407386 38417494 37107757 37377940
            38977694 40227527=20


=3D =3D =3D
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