Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 04 2023 00:22:20

AWUS01 KWNH 040022
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0630
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...East-central MS...West-central to Central AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040020Z - 040430Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of cell mergers/collisions and slow
moving over-running thunderstorms along southward progressing
outflow boundary pose a risk for low-end flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A mature cold pool from ongoing convection across
northern AL continues to slowly drop southward.  Low level flow is
weak and generally out of the south and south-southwest through
850mb, so weak isentropic ascent is likely to continue as long as
the pre-storm environment remains weakly capped or uncapped.=20
Current RAP analysis suggests a pool of 2500-3000 J/kg exists
across East-central MS into west-central AL given remaining upper
80s temps and upper 70s to low 80s Tds. The band has started to
move toward the southern edge of the anomalous 700-300mb moisture
band, adding to overall total Pwats at or just above 2.0" and
limited dry air for keeping the cold pool generally weaker and
slower southward moving.  Intense rain rates of 2-2.5"/hr remain
possible with spots of 3"+.  However, with some increased drying
around MEI/NMM to SEM/MGM...forward progression may also reduce
duration for heavy rainfall and spots of 3+" further south toward
the Coastal Plain.   Additional mergers from active convection
from the southwest are likely to enhance short-term rain rates to
2.5-3"/hr for the best potential for low-end and localized flash
flooding.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4YDSu8UKP5o7BLV_BhenqZ0RF1a0nlZNpBZguG-6c-WniBT32bF0jfofCT2HkEzoYwtu=
SFfcebiAb6e3ZjGo21Z4j8U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33408907 33378793 33338704 33218643 32918615=20
            32538596 32068638 31978719 32038839 32228938=20
            32848958=20

=3D =3D =3D
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