Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1412
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 23:09:20

ACUS11 KWNS 032309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032308=20
WYZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032308Z - 040045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe outflow winds may accompany high-based
thunderstorms into early evening. A watch is unlikely south of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms are evolving eastward across
parts of central and southern Wyoming this afternoon. Within the
pre-convective environment, modified RAP forecast soundings show a
deeply mixed boundary layer with large temperature/dewpoint spreads
(inverted-V thermodynamic profile). Over central WY, a belt of 30 kt
midlevel flow will favor some updraft organization and the potential
for a higher concentration of severe winds. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 441 has been locally extended into Natrona County to account
for this risk.=20

Farther south, despite weaker midlevel flow and related deep-layer
shear, the aforementioned deep boundary layer will still support
strong to severe outflow winds with disorganized, high-based
thunderstorms. The severe-wind risk over this area (southern WY)
should remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9oQapWaX-RrGE-wqVImqiOgwumbJzYvR9Cer_cmxZgApikLnzTgURFf5lHz_gZw5Tiw54MO3a=
KISx4btFYMA-YkOXck$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   43420606 43310554 43180523 42920493 42590471 42210468
            41530490 41220534 41090597 41060677 41100753 41210816
            41560856 41890872 42390886 42790882 43150862 43310823
            43420754 43420606=20


=3D =3D =3D
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