Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1411
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 20:50:02

ACUS11 KWNS 032049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032049=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Portion of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...440...

Valid 032049Z - 032245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439, 440
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will continue to be possible across much of
the Mid-Atlantic the remainder of this afternoon. There remains some
potential for convection within the northern Blue Ridge to intensify
as it moves east.

DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within the Mid-Atlantic region
have been in the Virginia Beach, VA vicinity into northeast North
Carolina. The organized cluster of storms there have produced wind
damage reports. This activity may move offshore in the next 1-2
hours. Convection has been more isolated in central Virginia, but
MRMS radar has shown strong cores with some of these storms as they
move eastward. The current activity will continue to pose a threat
of damaging winds given the strong surface heating and steep
low-level lapse rates.

Earlier cloud cover has hindered convective development along
northern portions of the Blue Ridge. As this cloud cover has
dissipated, cumulus has become deeper in far northern
Virginia/central Maryland. The moist airmass downstream will
continue to destabilize over the next couple of hours. As such,
eastern portions of Maryland into southern New Jersey should
eventually get impacted by intensifying storms from the northern
Blue Ridge along with storms moving in from central Virginia.

...Wendt.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-rH2Sgj3xouy4Fnb7OWfxiHuNoyznaJNmAbaXss4_Xegvq3pEAoiIx_kpRXSZn4cmSWZL0E-H=
kdTDHN-hYYMW8s-UMo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37107825 37227857 37707862 38467850 38977832 39307816
            39707784 40167727 40447648 40337446 39697411 38517497
            36757571 35997573 35547603 35567659 35937686 36687704
            37037725 37137758 37107825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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