Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1409
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 20:48:06

ACUS11 KWNS 032047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032047=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...northeastern WY...southwestern SD...and far
northwestern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 032047Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts and a few instances of large
hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of
northeastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, and far
northwestern Nebraska. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed in
the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A stationary boundary has set up across portions of
northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Convection has
begun to develop with the deepening cumulus field along the boundary
in an environment characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-45
kts effective bulk shear, per mesoanalysis. Given the sufficient
deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and straight hodographs, expect
a large hail threat, and a couple 2-inch reports are possible with
early isolated development along the boundary. With time, expect
consolidating cold pools producing upscale growth into one or more
bowing segments, producing a threat for severe winds.

...Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_yDjMYqwRP3gXgpZ_jTIc6sDc4gSs7s0Dm0u0pzPicqXEzT5bMxnGlNMSrYNV4sZRJdZ9vn4D=
fCFTuRxfNHIV65jI9g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43170499 43580663 44090707 44220707 44600685 45030584
            45040412 44540182 44400096 43589972 43119961 42809998
            42620171 42710276 43170499=20


=3D =3D =3D
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