Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1406
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 19:19:16

ACUS11 KWNS 031919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031919=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Western/central North Carolina and northern South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031919Z - 032115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon.
The eastern extent of the threat will depend on further
destabilization in central North Carolina. A watch is possible, but
uncertainty remains medium to high.

DISCUSSION...With an MCV moving through western/central North
Carolina earlier today, subsidence is evident on visible satellite.
However, a moist airmass remains up against the southern
Appalachians and storms have initiated in western North Carolina
within the last hour and a half. The airmass ahead of the current
convection clearly has some capping present, but destabilization
will continue into the afternoon as temperatures have warmed into
the upper 80s/low 90s F (warmer than RAP forecast temperatures).
Modest mid-level winds are present in parts of northern North
Carolina and drop off fairly rapidly in to South Carolina per
regional VAD winds. A few strong to severe storms capable of
damaging winds are possible, but the timing and eastern extent of
the threat away from the terrain is uncertain. Convective trends
will be monitored through the afternoon.

...Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-BPmFl_3xOnZW3UeQRSdVM1-OEiocDR8BPeqYP_8rhl0eS-AIaUNjt7JK96BgllegH-HYoHW7=
VPKScoIMlSJOcvVA0I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34867863 34517904 34317980 34668124 35318241 35658230
            35948199 36028167 35938138 35928058 36008006 36137901
            36327810 36137755 35687785 34867863=20


=3D =3D =3D
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