Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 19:17:47

ACUS11 KWNS 031917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031917=20
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...parts of far northeastern NV...southeastern
ID...northern UT...southwestern WY...and far northwestern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031917Z - 032115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts are possible this afternoon
across parts of far northeastern Nevada, southeastern Idaho,
northern Utah, southwestern Wyoming, and far northwestern Colorado.
A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Terrain-forced convective development is underway this
afternoon, with several clusters of storms ongoing across northern
Utah. Short-term RAP forecast profiles and a recent ACARS profile
from Salt Lake City show a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with an
inverted-V thermodynamic profile and relatively weak deep-layer
shear. Given the large DCAPE, strongly negatively buoyant outflow is
expected, producing a few downbursts with strong to severe wind
gusts. Additional convective development is possible with deepening
cumulus on visible satellite imagery across far northeastern Nevada,
which would also pose a damaging wind threat. Storms should wane
with loss of diurnal heating this evening.

...Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9dwKlFV_woZttWp5eYXamCmnwixyQ5mPJnkUEhnFGdlGLQJd1KspuJBAzRWa_jpNraAyi6lNj=
QHUdcKIOqbzPEE0vaM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON   39601213 39841313 40261373 40601414 41541445 42171415
            42501378 42821308 42851113 42601012 41740873 41210862
            40600876 40120892 39760980 39651070 39681077 39601213=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.