Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1404
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 17:57:18

ACUS11 KWNS 031757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031756=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031756Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong buoyancy ahead of an MCV will support damaging
downburst winds as storm coverage increases this afternoon. A watch
is possible for parts of the North Carolina Coastal Plain.

DISCUSSION...A weak MCV is moving into central/eastern North
Carolina. Cumulus are deepening ahead of this feature. Surface
temperatures have risen into the low/mid 90s F with dewpoints
holding generally in the mid 70s F. This strongly buoyant airmass
(near 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support potential for damaging
downburst winds. Mid-level winds are much weaker this far south and
area VAD winds do not indicate much enhancement from the MCV itself.
As such, storms may be relatively intense but not substantially
organized. A watch is possible for parts of the Coastal Plain region
this afternoon.

...Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5jBMTzJYNlssffwG4vQryEGXg2JSrxMMddiATl7FFEAWfKz6At_u4jhUQsOhRB15rXSNYJNF2=
GhSfSb7gn-07pSIKK8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34437938 34807953 35367946 36007909 36137797 35967691
            35857632 35247656 34807741 34467829 34267914 34437938=20


=3D =3D =3D
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