Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 17:53:47

ACUS11 KWNS 031753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031753=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031753Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and perhaps a couple instances of
marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon across portions
of central and eastern Oklahoma. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection is ongoing along a
northwest/southeast-oriented stationary boundary in central
Oklahoma. South and west of the boundary, temperatures have warmed
into the low 90s F with dewpoints near 70 F, yielding MLCAPE values
of 2000-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. Given weak
deep-layer shear, single- and multi-cell clusters should dominate.
These storms will pose primarily a damaging wind threat given steep
low-level lapse rates and large precipitation loading in downdrafts,
though some marginally severe hail is possible.

Additional convective development is possible along the boundary as
heating continues this afternoon, and this would also pose primarily
a damaging wind threat, along with perhaps some marginally severe
hail. With time, storms are expected to form one or more clusters
and move southeastward.

...Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!__MyiDY2IR5lrO7HJ0EIfclxYtLSwBnvyPFV7jC3D1tL3sLil90TJ2CqP8LCaSRK0cvbxbGGJ=
cu6nz4yRuJg4MBzfKc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35839843 36489786 36679726 36599634 35929536 35759498
            35369470 34839466 34199506 33869555 33799591 33869734
            34099845 34699895 35399879 35839843=20


=3D =3D =3D
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