Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1401
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 17:42:47

ACUS11 KWNS 031742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031742=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031742Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop in a hot, moist environment.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible.
One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely for much of the
Mid-Atlantic in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon satellite imagery shows developing
cumulus along the Appalachians. Some stable billow clouds remain in
central/northern Virginia, but they have shown a dissipating trend
over the last hour. Farther south, a weak MCV is slowly moving east
in central North Carolina. Some convection has recently developed
along the northeastern flank of this feature where temperatures are
in the low 90s F. Due to modest rising mid-level heights, it seems
that convection may still take some time to mature, with the
MCV-related storms potentially being an exception. Modest mid-level
winds remaining across the region (diminishing with southward
extent) will lead to 30-35 kts of effective shear. Strong surface
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will support
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (greater with southward extent). Scattered
thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours with the
potential for strong/severe wind gusts. Large hail is possible with
supercell structures, but will be more isolated in nature. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region in
the next 1-2 hours.

...Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_UvGK0X5RwVg9phPUB_7K8sHJ0r1Uy-4yX4ORQ-5g4OpKLCqiQ8un7WLfN49EskfC0orKVRu-=
QhVGKy85K9O4G3L6uU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   39647637 38667579 36887655 36177756 36037814 36417890
            36807946 37057945 38097861 39087782 39477729 39647637=20


=3D =3D =3D
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