Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 08:47:43

ACUS48 KWNS 030847
SWOD48
SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Global models remain in reasonable agreement with large-scale
features, well into the medium range, though differences at smaller
scales become apparent earlier -- substantial enough to complicate
the convective forecast.

Day 4, severe risk remains apparent across the central and northern
High Plains vicinity, within a post-frontal upslope scenario.  As
afternoon destabilization occurs, storms should gradually increase
in coverage, and with 40-plus kt mid-level westerlies atop low-level
southeasterlies, risk for severe/supercell storms is expected.
During the evening/overnight, convection should spread off the
higher terrain and into the Plains, potentially becoming widespread
as a strong southerly low-level jet develops.  Some severe risk may
continue into the overnight period.  Farther east across the Midwest
region, along the advancing front, some severe risk may also exist.
However, with modest shear anticipated across most of the area, risk
appears too limited to warrant introduction of a risk area at this
time.

Day 5, potentially widespread/early-period convection expected
across the central Plains vicinity complicates the forecast.
However, with the belt of enhanced westerlies centered over the
Kansas/Nebraska vicinity, severe weather will again be likely, where
airmass destabilization occurs away from areas of convective
contamination.  However, uncertainty precludes highlighting a risk
area at this time.

From Day 6 onward, decreasing predictability of smaller-scale
features casts substantial uncertainty over the convective forecast
through the end of the period.

...Goss.. 07/03/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.