Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 05:59:14 ACUS02 KWNS 030559 SWODY2 SPC AC 030557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms are expected from the Upper Mississippi vally area southwestward to the central High Plains for Independence Day. A few severe storms may also occur from the Mid-Atlantic region/Carolinas west-southwestward to the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Synopsis... A weak upper trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across New England Tuesday, while farther west, a more pronounced area of cyclonic flow will continue to expand across portions of the Intermountain West and northern/central Plains area. At the surface, a weak front will linger across the East Coast and Gulf Coast states, while a stronger cold front is progged to progress eastward to the Upper Great Lakes, southeastward across the Middle Missouri Valley, and southward across the central High Plains through the end of the period. ....Western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to the central High Plains... Daytime heating will support moderate destabilization along a slowly advancing, northeast-to-southwest cold front during the afternoon. While a cluster of storms may cross the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region early in the day, an afternoon increase in storm development/coverage is expected, aided by several small-scale disturbances aloft rotating eastward through the cyclonic flow field. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the west of the Upper Mississippi to Mid-Missouri Valley portion of the front, multicell storm clusters evolving with time will pose risk for locally damaging winds and hail. Farther to the southwest, into the central High Plains, easterly upslope flow just to the cool side of the front beneath 40 to 50 kt mid-level westerlies will yield shear supportive of supercell storms. By late afternoon, risk for large hail and damaging winds may evolve, along with potential for a tornado or two, across the southeastern Wyoming/northeastern Colorado/Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. Later, potential for storms to move off the higher terrain and evolve into an MCS is evident, which could bring risk for damaging winds and hail that may continue into the overnight hours. ....Portions of the East Coast Region and Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization near and ahead of the weak/slow-moving front extending southwestward across the Eastern Seaboard, and westward across the southeast will result in scattered thunderstorm development. While modest deep-layer shear suggests generally disorganized convection, moderate west-southwesterlies through the lower and middle troposphere may promote a few eastward-propagating clusters of storms, where potential for strong/gusty outflow winds may be relatively maximized. Overall however, hail/wind potential should remain isolated, confined to generally disorganized storms into the evening hours. ...Goss.. 07/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .