Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 03 2023 00:43:11

ACUS01 KWNS 030043
SWODY1
SPC AC 030041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND ADJACENT MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Organized clusters of storms, a few severe, will continue this
evening, mainly across portions of the lower Ohio Valley and
Tennessee Valley region. Primary risk is gusty winds.

....01z Update...

Well-defined upper trough is progressing east across the OH Valley
early this evening. Considerable amount of convection has evolved
ahead of this feature arcing from OH-KY-northern TN. Large-scale
forcing will aid eastward advancement of this activity over the next
several hours as modest deep-layer shear and mid-level flow are
coincident with these storms. Additionally, modest buoyancy persists
ahead of this convection so gusty winds appear possible, especially
with the more organized north-south line segments over KY. 00z
sounding from BNA exhibits roughly 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with 43kt of
surface-6km shear which supports some wind threat with this
convection, especially for the next several hours. While convection
will likely continue deep into the overnight hours, nocturnal
cooling should contribute to weaker updrafts with time.

Water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough digging
southeast across eastern CO/northeast NM this evening. A few
slow-moving clusters of convection have evolved within this
northwesterly flow regime. 00z soundings from both DDC and AMA
suggest convection may linger for several hours as it progresses
across the high Plains of western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle.
Gusty winds are the primary concern for the next few hours.

...Darrow.. 07/03/2023

$$

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