Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 23:31:29

AWUS01 KWNH 022331
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-030445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0625
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Southern & Eastern KY...Southern WV...Ext North
Middle & Eastern TN...Ext. Southwest VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022330Z - 030445Z

SUMMARY...Repeating rounds of thunderstorms with possible
short-term training potential to increase localized 2-3" totals an
possible flash flooding conditions, particularly in complex
terrain.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-E imagery loops depict
multiple linear convective lines moving east-northeast in
progressive flow across KY into the central Appalachians.  Many of
the bands are starting to have upstream development along the
trailing convergence/outflow boundaries laid out as the prior line
passed.  Surface southerly flow to SSWly boundary layer flow
support sufficient convergence along these boundaries to initiate
newer development which orient favorably to the progressive deep
layer steering flow for short-term training potential.=20

Strong insolation but sufficient capping has allowed for
instability between 2000 and 3000 J/kg, but is starting to
diminish slowly with loss of peak heating.  The convergence has
become sufficient to develop increasing convective activity in the
late day, and with slowly increasing SSW LLJ to 20-30kts by 02z,
moisture flux convergence should maintain some clustering with
efficient rainfall production.  Rates of 1.5-2"/hr should be
typical through 04z before weakening as remaining instability
pockets either are exhausted or become capped again.

Cell motions will be quick and so short-term training or more
likely multiple rounds with each mesoscale forcing wave, should
allow for localized 2-3" totals through 06z.  Given how quickly in
succession will determine flash flooding potential, but localized
incidents of flash flooding will remain possible, particularly as
the cells move into/across more complex terrain in eastern KY,
southern WV, and southwestern VA even though the area has been
relatively dry.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5mStM4lr25TA-Iqq_GokjmKML1WvfUeGcD3OVMzmNJ2piJiwwe0ZkiTdDKCKgbdtQh_-=
5IpAyuVUBCpHrgXhlGpX6BY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38438059 37428056 36938250 36748371 36528586=20
            36888678 37498639 37938511 38108410 38358213=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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