Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1394
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 22:56:40

ACUS11 KWNS 022256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022255=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern ND and far northwestern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 022255Z - 030100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe-storm risk will increase during the next
few hours. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MBX shows an isolated
thunderstorm evolving eastward along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface
boundary/wind shift this afternoon. Within the pre-convective
environment, modified RAP forecast soundings indicate strong
surface-based instability driven by a moist/well-mixed boundary
layer (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep lapse rates in the
850-500-mb layer. While deep-layer flow/shear is not overly strong,
some increase in midlevel westerly flow is expected ahead of an
approaching midlevel jet streak currently crossing parts of SK
Canada into early evening. As a result, around 25 kt of effective
shear and the aforementioned strong instability could favor a couple
loosely organized thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail
and locally damaging gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to
remain too isolated/marginal for a watch.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_8vaBzrELeCeYFiBrXBQl04F1kLEIbeyNuxrUr55qVxZ3jQGKphO17eZEAFjQNlUM6uoqBXTo=
l-whpfQsOkptTGxLTU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48289955 48489981 48819986 49049985 49089951 49089834
            49059699 48899679 48519680 48169723 48109786 48139881
            48289955=20


=3D =3D =3D
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