Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 22:27:00

AWUS01 KWNH 022226
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0624
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
626 PM EDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Central and Eastern OH...Southwest PA...Stovepipe
of WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022230Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...Possible training thunderstorms entering more complex
terrain of E OH, W PA pose a risk for spotty 2-3" totals and
possible localized flash flooding concerns through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible loop depict an
expanding cluster of thunderstorms across central to north-central
OH at the furthest edge of approaching larger scale closed low
over W IND.  RAP analysis supported by VWP depict a backed 850mb
flow across western into central OH increasing convergence in
proximity to the development before flattening/veering west across
E OH/W PA in the wake of the MCV/shortwave in central PA.=20
Surface/RAP analysis also depicts a narrow west to east theta-E
axis, generally aligned with I-70.  SBCAPEs of 2500 J/kg should
allow for stronger updrafts and with ample deep layer moisture
(Total PWats of 1.5-1.75"), rainfall efficiency should support
rates in a similar 1.5-2"/hr range. Duration is going to be key
for any potential for flash flooding.

Currently, cells are weakly organized, but visible imagery does
show a few low level Cu streets that suggest a flattening of the
storms orientation toward the instability axis.  Within an
increasingly unidirectional steering flow that short-term training
elements may occur in the next few hours, allowing for that
necessary rainfall duration.  Given this, localized 2-3" totals
may become possible especially toward E OH before sunset and slow
loss of instability.  Cells are likely to reach compromised soil
conditions (due to flooding rains yesterday) in W PA, in this
downturn in available instability.  Still, hourly FFG values below
1" suggest any lingering thunderstorms still have a possibility
and so flash flooding is considered possible through 04z.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7qLfpewFBEkF9cYWJzUcNnw6F1X87Kjcdw_zhFsvfC-9iIxgNT6mMt-44TCUGrI-JXHw=
JRhfbYLNDKe9MSjV3RlHcHE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41137989 40917915 40317906 39817956 39728013=20
            39898190 40168289 40688260 40998174 41118092=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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