Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1392
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 21:55:09

ACUS11 KWNS 022155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022154=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-022330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...western and central
NC...northwestern SC...and far southwestern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022154Z - 022330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue to increase through the
early evening, and a watch may be needed for parts of the area
within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated boundary-layer cumulus field over parts of western NC this
afternoon -- where a warm and moist air mass is in place (lower 90s
temperatures and lower 70s dewpoints). Current thinking is that
continued diurnal destabilization along with orographic ascent will
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through the early
evening. The MRX VWP sampled a west-southwesterly, unidirectional
wind profile with around 30-40 kt of effective shear. This wind
profile, coupled with the destabilizing air mass, should support a
mix of organized multicells and transient supercells capable of wind
damage and marginally severe hail. A watch may be needed within the
hour for parts of the area.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5oeAxROCEK57DIqsGp0rAIG8sd-w0i1mbCCOqkOg_MlGFCxjHYlVlS3fvMfwDsEMrY2GoTx9U=
Y6Dj05uSzRnP4Zum1Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   36758117 36548054 36208000 35817996 35398008 35078026
            34828077 34528191 34528280 34558322 34768364 35128386
            35648367 36418327 36698305 36818267 36848223 36818168
            36758117=20


=3D =3D =3D
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