Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1388
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 19:24:39

ACUS11 KWNS 021924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021924=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...eastern PA and northwestern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021924Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a
tornado or two are possible across portions of eastern Pennsylvania
and northwestern NJ. A watch may may be needed in the next 1-2
hours.

DISCUSSION...Some deeper cumulus is apparent across eastern
Pennsylvania on visible satellite imagery, and some deeper
convection has already developed in central Pennsylvania, with some
mid-level mesocyclones apparent on the KCCX WSR-88D. Per
mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecasts, these storms are in an
environment of modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg) and deep-layer shear
(30-40 kts of effective bulk shear). Additionally, the KCCX VWP
shows approximately 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH for an eastward
storm-motion, which may support a tornado threat in areas with
sufficient low-level CAPE for updraft stretching. With time, storms
may cluster upscale with some wind-damage potential. Trends are
being monitored, and a watch may be issued.

...Supinie/Grams.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_E-IwTUv1th-MLjjMxR9tnwOUiK69Lhm4f_G8Mt4B5jRQLqQ2Bmuul8VWzrD_ElDbapNC_imZ=
E2QD5wUvdmFPv60pnQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   39897697 40107753 40537787 40947790 41217772 41407738
            41797593 41787536 41607503 41427474 41067453 40837457
            40387491 40177530 39867610 39877671 39897697=20


=3D =3D =3D
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