Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1386
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 18:11:38

ACUS11 KWNS 021811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021811=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...southeast CO...northeast NM...western portions of
the OK/TX Panhandles and extreme southwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021811Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along higher terrain will shift
east/southeast through early evening. Sporadic strong gusts and
isolated hail are possible with this activity. If an organized
cluster can develop and be sustained into the High Plains, a watch
may be needed later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed early this afternoon along the
higher terrain of central NM into south-central CO. Some minor
inhibition is still evident in objective analysis fields, but
continued heating and modest ascent should erode inhibition over the
next hour. As storms shift east off of higher terrain and into the
adjacent High Plains, potential for isolated severe gusts and a few
instances of hail are possible. Modest instability (around 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-25 kt effective shear will be sufficient for
transient cell organization. Very steep low-level lapse rates will
support strong outflow, and some potential exists for clustering.
Storms could develop into a forward propagating cluster via mergers
and consolidating outflows. If this occurs, some increased risk of a
swatch of severe gusts will be possible across parts of northeast NM
into the OK/TX Panhandles. Depending on trends, a severe
thunderstorm watch could become necessary later this afternoon, but
this remains uncertain.

...Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6cOLrNNkvU1tZNOkJ5HPBJtlov2ilPddzs3tFhBarVlXBM_GUxBEtNxvlCN3nfnmhu1uUKTKz=
TylDOrbBRc5fQcj0Og$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35430142 34840176 34360251 34100325 34080391 34300445
            35390540 35900543 36740525 37170476 37580352 37830277
            37790225 37450188 36580144 36090129 35690128 35430142=20


=3D =3D =3D
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