Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1385
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 18:06:38

ACUS11 KWNS 021806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021806=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of far southern PA...central MD...central
VA...and northern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021806Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a few
instances of severe hail are possible this afternoon across parts of
far southern Pennsylvania, central Maryland, central Virginia, and
northern North Carolina. A watch is possible in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon near an MCV
centered over southern West Virginia. Per mesoanalysis and
short-term RAP forecasts, these storms are in an environment
characterized by modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). The
deep-layer shear is also relatively weak (25-35 kts effective bulk
shear), but this may be enough for some multicell and transient
supercell structures, particularly with northward extent, where the
deep-layer shear is a bit stronger. Additionally, modestly steep
low-level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) and some clustering may allow for
some downbursts with wind damage. Additionally, a few instances of
large hail are possible given the deep CAPE profile. With time,
storms are expected to cluster together and move off to the east
before moving offshore later this afternoon.

...Supinie/Grams.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7nSWa49AwZ0yEySa3XR16TqZOXKDO1CtJ5V4E2Wan3BK38_uN7Op0PYydXsT7BqAS74LhRmW2=
5XjAmYs1yeY0voxGjE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35687975 35488047 35658118 35988126 36318110 36708066
            36928054 37208029 37577989 38237920 39297804 39977718
            40067695 40017633 39667619 38657645 37947680 36777775
            36417814 36207851 36017900 35687975=20


=3D =3D =3D
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